Can the UK reach its 80% ZEV target by 2030?

Leading UK automotive marketplace, Auto Trader, has released the latest edition of its Road to 2030 Report, which assesses the current conditions of the UK's car market in the run...
  • Leading UK automotive marketplace, Auto Trader, has released the latest edition of its Road to 2030 Report, which assesses the current conditions of the UK’s car market in the run up to the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars.
  • With several changes to EV policy this year, EV market share has continued to grow, but there are still concerns around the UK meeting its target of 80% ZEV market share at the current trajectory.
  • Auto Trader research shows that at the current rate, EVs will account for 45% market share, far below the 80% target. There is still enough time to change this rate of growth around, however.

Is the increasingly cheap used EV market threatening new sales?

With the prices of used electric cars dropping further, those looking to purchase an EV for the first time are becoming ever more tempted by opting for a second-hand model, with some of the best used electric cars on the market helping the early mainstream to go electric at a lower cost. Even Tesla’s Model 3 saloon, for instance, can be found as cheap as £9,000, for high mileage examples.

It’s clear that consumer demand for EVs is strong – two in five consumers are considering an EV for their next car according to Auto Trader, whilst nine in ten EV drivers plan to stick with electric for their next car. However, Auto Trader is finding that used demand far surpasses new demand. On its own site, used EVs are generating 1.5x more sales enquiries than new EVs. The used market is an important tool for electrification, but without a healthy supply of new cars also being sold, it could become unsustainable. The increasing number of affordable new EVs should also help counteract the current preference for used models.

Auto Trader also notes that recent changes to electric car vehicle excise duty, such as the luxury car supplement, has added the average of £600 to the price of a new EV. Groups such as the SMMT have been calling for this charge to be scrapped for many EVs, to help maintain new EV appetite.

Ian Plummer, Commercial Director of Auto Trader, commented

“There is genuine concern that 80% of consumers doubt the Government can meet its 2030 goal of banning new petrol and diesel vehicle sales. While the availability of affordable new and used EVs is increasing, and the £1.4 billion recently committed by the Government to support the transition is promising, it may take time for these improvements to reach and reassure the wider public.

This data highlights that while EV interest is growing, the opportunity to convert curious buyers into confident adopters in their next car purchase is now and we have to act. We urgently need to rethink the expensive car supplement and vehicle excise duty tax changes and to focus on public information campaigns to enable consumers to feel good about making the switch.

With one in three new cars sold in the UK now having a plug, we know there’s consumer appetite for the new technologies now on offer. The issue has always been affordability and new electric models coming to market under £20,000 should help to close the gap between electric sales and transition targets. But this new analysis questions if that will be enough – there’s plenty for the industry and government to do now to set us up for success.”