- Roland Berger revised its 2030 global BEV market share forecast to 25-45% due to economic and market challenges.
- Key obstacles include geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and political divisions affecting U.S. adoption rates.
- Despite challenges, strategic flexibility, financial prudence, and AI use are advised for achieving significant BEV progress by 2030.
Roland Berger consultancy alters its predictions for the global BEV market share by 2030, dropping from 50% to 25-45%
Roland Berger, a leading consulting firm, has revised its forecast for global BEV (battery electric vehicle) market share by 2030. It predicts a range of 25-45% rather than the previously anticipated 50%. While BEV adoption has made significant strides, various economic and market challenges have diminished the original 50% target.
The EV market has seen remarkable growth since manufacturers have committed to electrification. Government subsidies and stricter emissions regulations further boosted BEV production and market expectations.
Why has the prediction dipped?
Roland Berger’s report highlights three major obstacles: geopolitical tensions, supply chain constraints, and domestic political divisions.
Geopolitical tensions, especially strained relationships with China, pose substantial risks to the supply chain. Legislative efforts in the U.S. and Europe to reduce reliance on Chinese companies, while aiming to secure supply chains, disrupt the rapid expansion needed for high BEV adoption. The EU’s tariffs are temporarily in place, awaiting final confirmation later this year. The US, however, ramped their tariffs up to 100% just recently.
Supply chain constraints present another significant challenge. Meeting the projected 2030 demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt requires a threefold increase in supply. Countries worldwide are busy establishing their domestic supply chain. In the UK, the new Labour government has pledged support for local, sustainable lithium mining to support this. Furthermore, nations worldwide are establishing megafactories as the cornerstones of their new green economies.
In the U.S., domestic political divisions impact BEV adoption rates. States that voted for Biden in 2020 have higher adoption rates compared to Trump-voting states. This interesting stat reflects a political divide that could slow nationwide adoption. With political discourse hotting up in the US as the election creeps closer, this EV-based division may grow.
Despite these hurdles, Roland Berger remains optimistic
The report outlines an optimistic scenario with BEV adoption reaching 35-45% by 2030. This is assuming sustained economic growth, stable supply chains, and expanded charging infrastructure. A more pessimistic scenario suggests 25-35% adoption, influenced by regulatory setbacks, geopolitical tensions, and profitability struggles.
To navigate these uncertainties, the report advises automotive suppliers to adopt strategic flexibility and financial prudence. Suppliers should diversify their portfolios and leverage AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Preparing for multiple adoption scenarios with flexible supply chains and tailored regional strategies is crucial.
Reducing costs, developing sustainable supply chains and infrastructure, and, ultimately, building consumer confidence in EVs are the main narrative points of the EV SUMMIT. Taking place in Oxford, UK, on the 15-16th of July, the summit will feature incredible panel discussions, industry-leading keynote speakers, and ample networking opportunities with the leading emobility businesses in the country.
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