- The United Kingdom is set to lead the way for electric vehicle production, with the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC)’s new report showing that of all passenger and commercial vehicles produced in the UK, almost all produced by 2035 be fully-electric models.
- That compares to 57% EV production in Europe, and 38% worldwide, by the same year.
- Overall, the UK is predicted to be producing around one million BEVs annually by 2035.
UK primed for widespread EV production in the next ten years
The figures come as part of the APC’s latest demand report, a quarterly document that analyses the future demand for light and heavy electric vehicles, helping to provide forecasts for battery and component demand on both global, Europe-wide, and UK scopes. The new report shows that compared to European and global figures, nearly all of the UK’s passenger and commercial vehicle production will be BEV models by 2035. The proportion of BEV models produced is also set to rise significantly by the milestones of 2027 and 2030. Not only will this be down to the rising demand for BEVs from markets around the world, but also the ever-reducing cost of EV battery packs.
The UK is fast emerging as an EV production powerhouse, thanks to multiple recent announcements and investments. The newly released industrial strategy commits to further boosting the UK’s position as a manufacturer of zero-emission vehicles, whilst Nissan has confirmed that its Sunderland plant will produce numerous upcoming electric models, including the third-generation Nissan Leaf.
However, the APC notes that there are scenarios within its predictions that could push the UK’s 2035 EV production either side of that one million mark.
Julian Hetherington MBE, Automotive Transformation Director at the APC, commented:
“We have set a base-case scenario which forecasts the UK to be manufacturing 1 million BEVs by 2035. However, given geopolitical instability, uncertainty around the market and supply chain capabilities, we have also considered within the report that a more cautious forecast could see this number reduced by 150,000 vehicles. A regrowth to circa 1.3m units per annum scenario is considered possible.
The transition is happening, and we are seeing demand for automotive batteries increasing steadily in all regions over the next 15 years, but perhaps not at the early pace we initially forecast. Hybrid production will take up a larger market share which indicates there is an increased focus on transitionary technologies to enable the shift towards electrified mobility.”
Dr Hadi Moztarzadeh, Head of Technology Trends at the APC, added:
“As OEMs are actively diversifying battery chemistries and localising supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risks and meet regional sustainability mandates, over the next 10 to 15 years we will see lithium-iron phosphate (LF(X)P) battery chemistries maintaining the lion’s share of world-vehicle production, with most of this accounted for in China. There will also be increases in Europe in this chemistry application, due to cost-effectiveness, material security, superior safety profile, and life cycle. It is currently not as popular in Europe and the UK, with nickel-based chemistries the preferred option, but as we move into 2027 and beyond, we will see demand for LF(X)P beginning to creep up.”
